To make the leap from toilet paper to bicycles, we need to take a moment to recall what happened during the coronavirus pandemic. “For years, around four million bikes were sold in Germany every year,” recalls Dirk Zedler, Deputy Chairman of the industry association Zukunft Fahrrad. “In 2020, sales rose by just under 20 per cent. Customers went to the first, second and third bike shops and couldn’t get a bike because everything was sold out. This led to some bike shops ordering five times as many bikes as usual.”
The situation was exacerbated by delivery delays and production bottlenecks. Shimano reported delivery times of up to a thousand days for certain components. “When production was in full swing in 2022, manufacturers in Asia were producing not only the 2022 models but also those for 2023. Then, partly due to gas prices, consumption plummeted and bike shops were flooded with stock. I know bike manufacturers who set up marquees in their yards to store the bike boxes,” says Zedler, summarising the situation. The comparison with toilet paper illustrates the basic problem: if you’ve bought a lot of it, you won’t need any more for a while.
(...) Disrupted supply chains, long production stoppages, and then, months later, significant overproduction: deliveries from Asia poured into Europe in a short space of time, like an avalanche. “There were manufacturers who had nearly seven-figure numbers of bikes too many,” says Zedler.
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STOCK IS STILL NOT RUN OUT
Wöll reiterates which segment of the bicycle market is causing the biggest problems: “When we talk about stock levels and pressure on stock, we’re talking primarily about e-bikes. Gravel bikes and road bikes are selling well – that’s not the issue at all.” However, the success of these two disciplines is also having an impact on the mountain biking sector: “Road bikes and gravel bikes have cannibalised the mountain bike market”, notes Dirk Zedler.
(...) VSF representative Uwe Wöll doesn’t see this as a problem. “In the road bike sector, we’d have a problem with models that are three or four years old. It’s different with e-bikes; consumers have different requirements. The technology has to work, and the bike has to suit them.” Zedler takes a more critical view: “The circuit manufacturers have brought out a new generation of products, whereas the motor manufacturers – their old stock hasn’t improved.” And he’s aware of another problem: some manufacturers have to re-produce old frames because they still have motors that no longer fit the new ones. “In the past, the frame and components were the key factors determining a bicycle’s value. Today, the battery and motor are clearly the main factors determining the value of an electric bike.”
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A GLIMPSE INTO THE FUTURE
(...) Blume takes a far more concerned view of the financial year that has just begun: “Those who already lack sufficient liquidity will find things extremely difficult. A consolidation process is set to take place on a scale we have probably never seen before. That is my forecast, at least for the first two quarters.” He sees the fact that the bike-leasing market is also faltering as a bad sign. Dirk Zedler also takes a critical view of the future: “I fear the crisis will continue for some time yet. I’m very worried that things will get even worse. In 2025, there was little good weather during the typical sales season – we must all hope for good cycling weather in 2026.” The cycling weather in Europe in the spring is so important for bike sales that it is even mentioned in reports from companies in Taiwan. All road cyclists would love to see good cycling weather. The hope is that 2026 will be a successful year for cycling for everyone. And that bikes will never again be compared to toilet paper.
Author: Christian Bauer
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